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OBJECTIVE: Analyzing the symptom characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19) to improve control and prevention. METHODS: Using the Baidu Index Platform (http://index.baidu.com) and the website of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention as data resources to obtain the search volume (SV) of keywords for symptoms associated with COVID-19 from January 1 to February 20 in each year from 2017 to 2020 and the epidemic data in Hubei province and the other top 9 impacted provinces in China. Data of 2020 were compared with those of the previous three years. Data of Hubei province were compared with those of the other 9 provinces. The differences and characteristics of the SV of COVID-19-related symptoms, and the correlations between the SV of COVID-19 and the number of newly confirmed/suspected cases were analyzed. The lag effects were discussed. RESULTS: Comparing the SV from January 1, 2020 to February 20, 2020 with those for the same period of the previous three years, Hubei's SV for cough, fever, diarrhea, chest tightness, dyspnea, and other symptoms were significantly increased. The total SV of lower respiratory symptoms was significantly higher than that of upper respiratory symptoms (Pï¼0.001). The SV of COVID-19 in Hubei province was significantly correlated with the number of newly confirmed/suspected cases (r confirmed = 0.723, r suspected = 0.863, both p < 0.001). The results of the distributed lag model suggested that the patients who searched relevant symptoms on the Internet may begin to see doctors in 2-3 days later and be confirmed in 3-4 days later. CONCLUSION: The total SV of lower respiratory symptoms was higher than that of upper respiratory symptoms, and the SV of diarrhea also increased significantly. It warned us to pay attention to not only the symptoms of the lower respiratory tract but also the gastrointestinal symptoms, especially diarrhea in patients with COVID-19. Internet search behavior had a positive correlation with the number of newly confirmed/suspected cases, suggesting that big data has an important role in the early warning of infectious diseases.
ABSTRACT
Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a well-known risk factor for coronary heart disease but protects against infection and sepsis. We aimed to disclose the exact association between LDL-C and severe 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Baseline data were retrospectively collected for 601 non-severe COVID-19 patients from two centers in Guangzhou and one center in Shenzhen, and patients on admission were medically observed for at least 15 days to determine the final outcome, including the non-severe group (n = 460) and the severe group (severe and critical cases) (n = 141). Among 601 cases, 76 (12.65%) received lipid-lowering therapy; the proportion of patients taking lipid-lowering drugs in the severe group was higher than that in the non-severe group (22.7 vs. 9.6%). We found a U-shaped association between LDL-C level and risk of severe COVID-19 using restricted cubic splines. Using univariate logistic regression analysis, odds ratios for severe COVID-19 for patients with LDL-C ≤1.6 mmol/L (61.9 mg/dL) and above 3.4 mmol/L (131.4 mg/dL) were 2.29 (95% confidence interval 1.12-4.68; p = 0.023) and 2.02 (1.04-3.94; p = 0.039), respectively, compared to those with LDL-C of 2.81-3.40 mmol/L (108.6-131.4 mg/dL); following multifactorial adjustment, odds ratios were 2.61 (1.07-6.37; p = 0.035) and 2.36 (1.09-5.14; p = 0.030). Similar results were yielded using 0.3 and 0.5 mmol/L categories of LDL-C and sensitivity analyses. Both low and high LDL-C levels were significantly associated with higher risk of severe COVID-19. Although our findings do not necessarily imply causality, they suggest that clinicians should pay more attention to lipid-lowering therapy in COVID-19 patients to improve clinical prognosis.
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BACKGROUND: To explore the epidemiological characteristics of allergic rhinitis (AR) and allergic conjunctivitis (AC) based on the Internet big data. METHODS: The Baidu index (BDI) of keywords "allergic rhinitis" and "allergic conjunctivitis" in Mandarin, the daily pollen concentration (PC) released by the Beijing Meteorological Bureau and the volumes of outpatient visits (OV) of the Beijing Tongren Hospital (Beijing) and the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (Guangzhou) from 2017 to 2020 were obtained. The temporal and spatial changes of AR and AC were discussed. The correlations between BDI and PC/OV were analyzed by Spearman correlation analysis. RESULTS: The trends of BDI of "AR"/"AC" in Beijing showed obvious seasonal variations, but not in Guangzhou. The BDI of "AR" and "AC" was consistent with the OV in both cities (r1AR-BJ=0.580, P<0.001; r1AR-GZ=0.360, P=0.031; r1AC-BJ=0.885, P<0.001; r1AC-GZ=0.694, P<0.001). The BDI of "AR" and "AC" was highly consistent with the change of the PC in Beijing (r AR-Pollen=0.826, P<0.001; r AC-Pollen=0.564, P<0.001). The OV of AR in Beijing and Guangzhou decreased significantly in the first half of 2020, but there was no significant change in AC. In the first half of 2020, the OV of AC in Beijing was significantly higher than that of AR, while that of AC in Guangzhou was slightly higher than that of AR. CONCLUSION: The BDI could reflect the real-world situation to some extent and has the potential to predict the epidemiological characteristics of AR and AC. The BDI and OV of AR decreased significantly, but those of AC were still at a high level, during the COVID-19 pandemic, in the environment where most people in Beijing and Guangzhou wore masks without eye protection.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Because there is no reliable risk stratification tool for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients at admission, we aimed to construct an effective model for early identification of cases at high risk of progression to severe COVID-19. METHODS: In this retrospective multicenter study, 372 hospitalized patients with nonsevere COVID-19 were followed for > 15 days after admission. Patients who deteriorated to severe or critical COVID-19 and those who maintained a nonsevere state were assigned to the severe and nonsevere groups, respectively. Based on baseline data of the 2 groups, we constructed a risk prediction nomogram for severe COVID-19 and evaluated its performance. RESULTS: The training cohort consisted of 189 patients, and the 2 independent validation cohorts consisted of 165 and 18 patients. Among all cases, 72 (19.4%) patients developed severe COVID-19. Older age; higher serum lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, coefficient of variation of red blood cell distribution width, blood urea nitrogen, and direct bilirubin; and lower albumin were associated with severe COVID-19. We generated the nomogram for early identifying severe COVID-19 in the training cohort (area under the curve [AUC], 0.912 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .846-.978]; sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 87.6%) and the validation cohort (AUC, 0.853 [95% CI, .790-.916]; sensitivity 77.5%, specificity 78.4%). The calibration curve for probability of severe COVID-19 showed optimal agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analyses indicated that nomogram conferred high clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Our nomogram could help clinicians with early identification of patients who will progress to severe COVID-19, which will enable better centralized management and early treatment of severe disease.